ITB BERLIN: Predictions for 2019

first_imgIn the first place last year was Turkey, which recorded a new 8,5 million arrivals, followed by the USA with a plus of 5,3 million, then Egypt + 3,4 million, France +3,2 million, Greece + 2,9 million, Italy +2,9 million, Thailand + 2,8 million, Japan + 2,6 million, Vietnam + 2,6 million, Germany + 2,6 million arrivals. The so-called “gold markets” with average travel costs of more than 2.000 euros were Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Brazil and China. The “silver markets” with spending per trip between 1.500 and 2.000 euros were the USA, India, Quatar, Japan and the Emirates. PURPOSE OF TRAVEL TOURISM IS A KEY DRIVER OF THE WORLD ECONOMY Travel “from the country” last year reached the number of 1,4 billion passengers, which is an increase of 5,5% compared to 2017. From European countries, the increase in travel was 5%, as well as from North America, while outgoing travel from Asian countries grew by 7% and from Latin America by 6%. 28% of passengers believe that their destination was overcrowded with tourists. Of that, as many as 12% of international travelers believe that too many tourists ruined their vacation at their destination. The problem of overtourism is most felt in Asia (19%), followed by North America with 13%, the South with 11% and Europe with 9%. Younger passengers (up to 34 years of age) are more sensitive to crowds (17%), those between 35 and 54 years less (11%) and passengers 55+ years old are least sensitive to crowds (5%). The cities most affected by the large number of tourists are Xian in China (36%), Beijing (30%), Mexico City (30%), Venice (26%), Amsterdam (25%), Istanbul (23%), Florence 23%), Rome (22%), etc. Crowds are also complained about by the domicile population and the consequence is a decline in the quality of service in many service industries that do not have enough capacity for so much demand pressure. The ITB traditionally presents the latest, newly processed data on travel trends in 2018 worldwide. FORECASTS FOR 2019 TOP 10 RECEPTIVE MARKETS BY INCREASING TURNOVER From Berlin from the ITB Berlin fair, Nedo Pinezić, South America recorded an increase of 87%, Asia and Pacific 84%, North America + of 48%, Europe + 45%, Caribbe and Cent. America + 32%. A total of 72% vacation, 14% business trip and 14% visit relatives and friends. Travel abroad for holidays increased by 60%, for visits to relatives and friends by 59%, while business trips in terms of business deals decreased by 4% and due to events, study trips, congresses and the like increased by 42%. In the MICE segment, the reasons for travel are 46% conferences and seminars, 16% congresses and conventions, business fairs 20% and reward, incentive trips 18%. BIG JOB – THE MOST RELEVANT DATA Everything is moving to the internet. In 2007, 46% of passengers used the Internet for this purpose, and in 2018, 82% of passengers. Accommodation websites were searched the most (38%), followed by official destination websites (34%), followed by transport websites (27%), followed by OTA platforms (, expedia, etc.), (22%), then travel advisor pages (e.g. TripAdvisor) (17%) and tour operator pages (17%). From social media, blogs were the most searched (11%), followed by social networks (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) (10%), travel forums (9%), live streaming (Instagram, YouTube, etc.) (3%). Interesting is the “return” of traditional media, which again enjoy the trust of 65% of travelers to trust in social networks, which is less – (34%). center_img When traveling for vacation, the first motive is “sun and sea” (29%), followed by short-term visits to cities (29%), followed by tour trips (18%), trips to the countryside and mountains (8%), cruises by boat (3%). ). The largest increase in reasons for vacation is recorded by short-term visits to cities, as much as 222% !. Cruises by ship are increasing by 78%, “sun and sea” by 76%, touring by 27%, trips to the countryside and to the mountains by 23%. Aircraft are mostly used for travel (65%), while land and water transport participate with 35%. The growth of traffic was recorded by aircraft (+ 74%), ships (+ 72%), rented cars (+ 70%), railways (+ 4%), while bus transport recorded a minus of 7%. PLANNING, SEARCH, TRAVEL PURCHASE OVERTOURISM For 2019, the growth of tourist traffic is projected at the following rates: USA + 5%, Asia and the Middle East + 6%, Europe + 3%. Global growth in tourist traffic in 2019 should be 4%. Fortunately, Croatia is among the 20 safest destinations ranked in order: Finland, Switzerland, Australia, Denmark, Norway, Canada, Austria, Sweden, Poland, Malta, Portugal, Hungary, the Netherlands, Bulgaria, Croatia, Ireland, Singapore, the Baltic countries. , Greece, Jamaica. Countries with less uncertainty are: Italy, Belgium, Peru, China, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Thailand, Spain, Cuba, Malaysia, Germany, Emirates, India, Brazil, Oman, UK, Quatar, South Africa, Russia, Colombia, Mexico, USA, Saudi Arabia, France, Morocco. The following countries are considered dangerous: Jordan, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel, Turkey. THE MOST POTENTIAL ISSUING MARKETS Offline sources also occupy certain percentages of information sources. Travel agencies 34%, friends and relatives 27%, printed travel guides 13%, magazines, TV, radio – a total of 9%. The importance of information provided by national tourist boards increased from 2% in 2007 to 4% in 2018. Local tourist boards increased passenger confidence from 2% in 2007 to 3% in 2018 as much as advertisements, while trade fairs as a source of information increased from 1%. 2007 to 2% in 2018. Compared to 2007, travel booking over the Internet increased from 38% to 72%, through travel agencies it fell from 29 to 27%, direct booking of accommodation increased from 11 to 19% and transportation from 8 at 12%. The average number of overnight stays worldwide is 8 and in North America 8,3, in South America 8,2, in Europe 8,2, in Asia 7 overnight stays. The average number of overnight stays has been growing since 2015 when it was at 7,4. Hotels are mostly used for accommodation (60%), 15% of travelers stay with friends at night and 25% of passengers use other types of commercial accommodation. Overnight stays in hotels increased by 59% in one year, but only in hotels of the highest and lowest category. With friends at night, 5% more passengers and all other types of commercial accommodation are chosen by 72% more passengers than a year earlier. So-called “homesharing” accommodation occupies only 6% of the market share. Influenced by the global slowdown in economic growth, forecasts for tourism are also somewhat lower. 2015 was the peak year of global economic growth. Since then, there have been some setbacks that culminate right now. We are facing a period of recession until the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Economic growth forecasts are for 2019 in North America + 2.5%, in China + 6%, in the Eurozone 1,2%. Also, the sensitivity of passengers to the threat of terrorism is quite high (38%). Terrorism is most feared on trips to Asia (57%), South America (36%), Europe (34%), North America (31%). 28% of all travelers will plan to travel exclusively to safe countries. DOMESTIC TRAVELS BY CONTINENTS NIGHTS IPK conducts research continuously throughout the year for the following year. The survey is conducted using questionnaires in 60 countries, on a sample of 500 respondents, in 000 languages. In Europe, the surveys are conducted in 55 countries with 33% market coverage, in the Americas in 99 countries with 13% market coverage, in Asia and the Middle East in 90 countries with 17% market coverage.last_img read more